Ok guys.... here's my take on things. It is just my view/opinion and not based on any scientific knowledge!
Pretty much everything is going to be on hold for somewhere between the next 12 weeks up to possibly up until September. Things will pick up by September even if we are still in a situation of people having to deal with Covid-19. We just need time to adapt and that may take some months to do so.
So why September? Well, the summer is typically a quieter time for law firms anyway - things tend to pick up between September and December in a normal year anyway, and if things have been so quiet for so long, there will come a point where things need to actually be actioned/changed.
Also firms tend to pick up work when "the sh*t hits the fan" - and this time it's hit that fan in spectacular fashion. There will be work lawyers have to do with restructures/insolvencies/litigation - all that will be driven by these unprecedented circumstances. If they were kept busy on some level in 2008/09, they will be kept busy now! As they also adapt to working more remotely, normal processes will slow down which means they will need more man power at times.
Also hiring trainees is a lot cheaper than associates. If anyone has more grounds to worry, it will be those who are currently employed and potentially facing redundancies. Restructures/redundancies happened a lot more in 2008/09 than firms completely pulling out of recruiting trainees. Where this did happen, firms were typically going bust. Also people due to qualify in the next 12 months probably are the most at risk as they have no rights to redundancy....
As mentioned above, firms are typically recruiting two to three years in advance. Back in 2008/09 when the financial crisis hit, the impact was more on the immediate TC start dates, when they looked to defer trainees from one intake to the next year (e.g. I asked for people to defer from 2009 to 2010, and 2010 to 2011). However not all trainees were deferred, it was only ever a proportion of the intake - typically less than 20%. Even when this was done, it was predominately voluntary - and some people were rewarded financially for taking that voluntary option. If deferrals did happen again this may mean that there are slightly fewer vacancies available for the intakes you are currently applying to - but to be frank about this, it will be nothing compared to some other industries where demands for graduates will drop dramatically. There is also a question as to whether people will choose to defer given the move to the SQE!
So what does this mean for you as potential applicants?
- Don't expect firms to come to immediate decisions on individual applications pre final round interview stage - you are really going to need to be patient and wait this out. Many people haven't got an answer themselves, let alone an answer to give you
- Internships and assessment centres/interview could be cancelled/postponed given the travel restrictions and where people are out of the office - when these are lifted, its likely things will return to normal and fairly quickly
My advice to you:
- The Shearman article linked above is a good one - there is lots of good advice in there
- Look for ways to engage people online - the biggest impact I see is that this could fundamentally change how employers engage on campus, not just for the short-term but also longer term too.
- Check in with one another - these forums although great, they can be faceless and you don't necessarily know everyone's intentions. While we are all more isolated, talk to one another, keep each other's spirits up rather than down
As of next week, I am potentially going to have an awful lot of time on my hands (my trip to Bali is now definitely off
) so I will have a think about how I can best support you all going forward. If anyone has any ideas on how I can help to reduce the group's worrying/anxiety, I'd like to hear them!