In times of recessions, application numbers always go up. People just hedge their bets with more job applications. At the same time, the visa process in the UK has changed, meaning it is actually easier to higher international applicants than it ever was before. That has undoubtedly increased application numbers for firms too.
However, from what I hear, it isn't all moving in the same direction. Application numbers are dropping in places because of a mixture of the following reasons:
- Brexit - lower student numbers, lower numbers of EU people living/working in the UK
- Gen Z's career choices - fewer people want to work in large corporate powerhouses than previous generations. Other careers where you can have more of a positive impact socially or grow much quicker than you would do in a large international law firm have grown in popularity
- Impact of Covid - it has really shaken up people's priorities. And for many that means working in a different way or pursuing a different career.
- Less candidates where more are going on to do postgraduate study
- The UK being a less attractive place to live than it once was
- The SQE opening up alternative qualification opportunities
However, I am sure with the cost of living going through the roof and inflation about to explode, people may look to pursue the highest paid jobs where they seek more financial security and that will draw more people to law.
But applications to the legal sector have always been high and I don't think it has actually got much harder to pursue the career now than it would have been in 2007, 2008-9, 2012, 2019 or now.
The legal sector is also pretty buoyant at the moment - firms are hiring more people than they have been for the last two years, with many topping up their 2022 and 2023 hiring numbers while recruiting for 2024. We haven't really seen that since 2011-12. From the latest figures, there are more TCs now than there were in 2018/2019, and that won't include the SQE opportunities also opening up.
So I look at this slightly differently. To me, it is actually an excellent time to try and get into the profession. There are more opportunities than ever before. This feeling it is more competitive just comes from on average people are making more applications (but they can only accept one job at a time).
I don't think the application demand will ever fall (it never has). What is more likely to go up or down is the number of jobs available though. And at the moment, that is only on the way up in the legal sector.