The UK Parliament votes on Brexit - Tuesday 15 January 2018 - 7pm

[Jaysen]

Hi All,

I found this excellent post from Reddit (as you do), which I've shared below, it should bring you up to speed on the Brexit vote today. If you are free tonight, I encourage you to watch the vote take place (you can use one of the links below). Beyond being useful for your commercial awareness, it's a pretty historic event.

Feel free to post any comments in this thread.

The UK Parliament votes on the Brexit Deal - Megathread

Background:

On June 23, 2016 the UK voted to leave the EU ('Brexit'). Following the vote, British Prime Minister David Cameron, who campaigned in favour of the UK remaining part of the EU, resigned and Theresa May, who also was a remainer, followed him as PM. The British government submitted an Art. 50 withdrawal notice to the EU on March 29, 2017. Between that date and November 2018, the EU negotiators and the UK worked out a "Brexit deal". This deal is up for a vote on Tuesday.

The vote TODAY:

The vote will take place on Tuesday, January 15th, 7 pm GMT (now 8pm GMT) in the House of Commons. Theresa May meant to bring this agreement to a vote in early December, but postponed the vote since she knew the deal would not get a majority.

Possible outcomes:

• The Brexit deal passes in parliament: The negotiated Brexit agreement will be accepted, the UK will leave the EU on March 29, 2019. It will be followed by a so-called "transition period" that will last until December 31, 2020. During that time, the UK will remain part of the single market and the customs union and it will be bound by EU legislation while itself can no longer influence EU policy. The transition period is meant to allow for a smooth transition while giving time to legislators and negotiation teams to work out a lot of issues that either have not been agreed on in the brexit deal (both sides deem a future trade agreement between the UK and the EU to be a top priority) or haven't been part of legislative efforts yet (the UK follows EU regulation instead of national law in many areas of life).
  
  
• The Brexit deal fails to reach a majority: The outcome of this scenario is entirely unclear. In terms of political consequences, possible that Theresa May could be replaced as PM in this scenario, although the technicalities are unclear. She could resign, be forced to resign, Labour plans to bring on a motion of no confidence. It is entirely unclear what the "Brexit consequences" would be. It could lead to the UK leaving the EU on March 29 without any deal or transition period ("Hard Brexit). Another possibility is a second referendum on Brexit. The EU has stated that they are willing to agree to an extension to the leave date, but only under certain conditions (helping the UK government secure support for the deal, potentially a second referendum). The third option is Westminster voting to withdraw from Art. 50, effectively cancelling Brexit, this is rather unlikely however.

Live Streams:

BBC Live Stream

UK Parliament Live Stream

Live Articles:

CNN

The Guardian

The Herald Scotland

The New York Times

The Telegraph

Live Articles for Monday, January 15

The Guardian: Brexit: Theresa May urges MPs to 'take a second look' at her deal – Politics live

The Telegraph: Brexit vote latest news: Theresa May pleads with MPs to 'take a second look' at her deal as Jeremy Corbyn calls for an election (soft Paywall)

Background articles:

BBC: May says opponents of Brexit deal risk 'letting British people down'

BBC: Possible amendments to PM's Brexit deal

BBC: Theresa May sets January date for MPs' Brexit vote

CNBC: A crunch Brexit vote is coming that could trigger even more political chaos

Financial Times: How big will Theresa May’s defeat be? (Paywall)

The Guardian: May makes final case for Brexit deal: 'Don't let the people down'

The Guardian: What does the week ahead hold for the Brexit debate?

The Irish Times: Nobody can say with confidence what way Tuesday’s Brexit vote will go

 

[Eva]

Just to add on the possible outcomes, the Prime Minister would be forced to present an alternative plan to the Brexit deal within three days if she were to lose the vote tonight.

 

[Jaysen]

Just to add on the possible outcomes, the Prime Minister would be forced to present an alternative plan to the Brexit deal within three days if she were to lose the vote tonight.

Good point! More info on that here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46805269

 

[Jaysen]

Timeline of today:

 

[Jaysen]

Update: Theresa May is now speaking.

 

[Jaysen]

 

[Jaysen]

Update: The Brexit deal has been rejected. It is an unprecedented defeat in British politics.

 

[Jaysen]

 

[Jaysen]

Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a motion of no confidence in the government. It will take place tomorrow.

 

[Helena]

Unlikely he will win that (I hope) as it really is the last thing we need now!

 

[Jaysen]

Surprisingly, the pound rose after the Brexit vote: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46883147

 

[Daniel Boden]

Surprisingly, the pound rose after the Brexit vote: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46883147

Perhaps this is because the markets are optimistic that remaining in Europe is now a greater possibility than before!?

 

[Jaysen]

Perhaps this is because the markets are optimistic that remaining in Europe is now a greater possibility than before!?

Yep, I agree with that!

 

[Jaysen]

A few updates for today:

• The vote of no confidence will take place at 7pm.
• European Council President Donald Tusk hinted the UK should stay in the EU.
• EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the rejected Brexit deal was the best compromise the EU could offer.

The options now (from this BBC article):

• No deal Brexit - this is the default position now that the Brexit deal has been rejected. There is a stronger consensus between MPs against this.
• A renegotiation of the Brexit deal with the EU - considering the scale of the defeat it's likely the UK will need a major renegotiation. If that's the case, Article 50 will have to be extended.
• A second referendum
• A general election
• Revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit

 

[Lawgirlxo]

The human side of me sympathises with Theresa May. That woman must be super exhausted and worn-out :/


On another note, does anyone think a different PM would have negotiated a ‘better deal’ for Britain? I’m genuinely curious. Isn’t it what the EU ‘puts on the table’ that Mrs May takes? Yes it’s a negotiation but I hope you get the point.

One of the arguments is that May shouldn’t have agreed on the backstop point, but what if there was no wiggle room? What if it was a dead end? Could it be that a different PM would have pushed back and gotten their way?

PS I promise I have a neutral view on this whole Brexit debate. I just wanna learn

 

[Jaysen]

The human side of me sympathises with Theresa May. That woman must be super exhausted and worn-out :/


On another note, does anyone think a different PM would have negotiated a ‘better deal’ for Britain? I’m genuinely curious. Isn’t it what the EU ‘puts on the table’ that Mrs May takes? Yes it’s a negotiation but I hope you get the point.

One of the arguments is that May shouldn’t have agreed on the backstop point, but what if there was no wiggle room? What if it was a dead end? Could it be that a different PM would have pushed back and gotten their way?

PS I promise I have a neutral view on this whole Brexit debate. I just wanna learn

You put down pretty much what I've been thinking! I think it's incredible what May has had to deal with, especially as she's practically hated from every side. I'm not convinced a different PM could have secured a "better" deal at this point. When she's criticised, many people seem to miss out the fact that she's up against the EU and she can't just pick whatever she wants. She also does have to actually leave the EU, she can't just have a Brexit in name only.

I'd be keen to hear what others think on this though.

 

[Eva]

You put down pretty much what I've been thinking! I think it's incredible what May has had to deal with, especially as she's practically hated from every side. I'm not convinced a different PM could have secured a "better" deal at this point. When she's criticised, many people seem to miss out the fact that she's up against the EU and she can't just pick whatever she wants. She also does have to actually leave the EU, she can't just have a Brexit in name only.

I'd be keen to hear what others think on this though.

To support some of your viewpoints, perhaps UK does not really have an upper hand in the negotiation to start with: https://www.businessinsider.com/ber...ower-than-uk-in-brexit-talks-2017-3?r=US&IR=T

The article was written in April 2017, but may well be relevant to contextualise the current situation.

When she's criticised, many people seem to miss out the fact that she's up against the EU and she can't just pick whatever she wants.

In a way, it is true that the EU won't back down to allow the Prime Minister to cherry-pick among the '4 freedoms' of the EU, particularly not the freedom movement of people.

 

[Jaysen]

To support some of your viewpoints, perhaps UK does not really have an upper hand in the negotiation to start with: https://www.businessinsider.com/ber...ower-than-uk-in-brexit-talks-2017-3?r=US&IR=T

The article was written in April 2017, but may well be relevant to contextualise the current situation.



In a way, it is true that the EU won't back down to allow the Prime Minister to cherry-pick among the '4 freedoms' of the EU, particularly not the freedom movement of people.

Thanks for sharing. It's also the case that the EU won't want to make things easy for the UK because it would send the wrong signal to other member states, that it would be OK to leave the EU and still get good deal terms. If that was the case, EU efforts for further integration would be severely damaged.

 

[Jaysen]

Update: In case you missed it, Theresa May survived a no-confidence motion this evening. Attention now turns to whether she has a credible Plan B after her Brexit deal was defeated in the House of Commons yesterday evening.

 

[Lawgirlxo]

You put down pretty much what I've been thinking! I think it's incredible what May has had to deal with, especially as she's practically hated from every side. I'm not convinced a different PM could have secured a "better" deal at this point. When she's criticised, many people seem to miss out the fact that she's up against the EU and she can't just pick whatever she wants. She also does have to actually leave the EU, she can't just have a Brexit in name only.

I'd be keen to hear what others think on this though.

To support some of your viewpoints, perhaps UK does not really have an upper hand in the negotiation to start with: https://www.businessinsider.com/ber...ower-than-uk-in-brexit-talks-2017-3?r=US&IR=T

The article was written in April 2017, but may well be relevant to contextualise the current situation.



In a way, it is true that the EU won't back down to allow the Prime Minister to cherry-pick among the '4 freedoms' of the EU, particularly not the freedom movement of people.

Thank you both for sharing your views. I’m glad I’m not the only one